Thailand in conflict: a not so happy Thai New Year

Today marks the start of the Songkran, AKA the Thai New Year. Although Thailand has recognised January 1st as the official start of the year since 1940, this time of the year (13th – 15th April annually to be precise) is still honoured traditionally as a nationwide public holiday.

Normally falling in the hottest time of the year in Thailand, I understand under good authority that what normally now ensues is a large-scale water fight, with the water symbolic for the washing away all of the past years’ evil and the renewal of each person for the year ahead. Songkran therefore is a time for personal development and national cleansing.

However, this year, the water fights have been cancelled.

What normally is a time for peace and respect for elders, has descended into a war-zone set upon a background of increasing political tensions, violence and Molotov cocktails.

Thailand is a divided country; you have the ‘yellow shirts’ on one side and the ‘red shirts’ on the other. Politically speaking, Thailand has been remarkably instable for the last few years and as a result we have seen one crisis after another ever since the military coup that disposed of Thaksin Shinawatra from power back in September 2006 whilst he was attending meetings at the UN in New York.

Since then the ‘yellow shirts’ and the ‘red shirts’ (pro-Thaksin) have engaged in a bitter tug-of-war over which side should govern. Naturally both sides reject the other's view of who should run the country, and each has staged long-running protests to push their cause.

Cast your mind back earlier this year to November, when the ‘yellow shirts’ staged a sit-in at Bangkok’s Suvarnabhumi International Airport, which subsequently blocked the arrival and departure of hundreds of flights and hit the Thai economy hard.

It was described at the time as “the most dramatic move so far in the protesters' campaign to oust the government”, but it succeeded. A few weeks later, their man – Abhisit Vejjajiva, who represents the Peoples' Alliance for Democracy (PAD) – was democratically chosen by the members of the government as the new Prime Minister. At the time, many Thais must have thought that their troubles were over. That however was not to be the case.

Their opponents, the United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD), believes that Prime Minister Vejjajiva came to power illegitimately and is a “puppet of the military” and so are demanding his immediate resignation and calling for a fresh set of elections from which it strongly believes it would emerge victorious.

To demand this change, the protesters have engaged in similar acts of protest to those of the ‘yellow shirts’. Since March, the protesters have held sit-in protests outside government offices, and have occasionally prevented the cabinet from meeting.

Their major achievement (if you can call it that) is that they successfully managed to force the cancellation of a summit of the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) last weekend, which was an important event for the Thai government.

They did this by storming the intended venue for the summit in the seaside resort of Pattaya, making it nigh-on impossible to guarantee the safety of the foreign dignitaries due to attend. Prime Minister Vejjajiva therefore had no choice but to declare a state of national emergency.

The following day, the protesters succeeded in breaking into the interior ministry and have established roadblocks on main of the busy roads in central Bangkok. Tens of thousands of ‘red shirts’ remain camped around Government House, where the Prime Minister's office is based, and are continually spurred on everyday by the words of Shinawatra, broadcasting daily via a video-link.

Shinawatra, who now lives in self-imposed exile here in the UK, faces two years in jail after being found guilty in a conflict of interest case should he return to Thailand. Following this conviction he fled to the UK, where he purchased Manchester City Football Club, only to later sell it on.

Back on the ground in Bangkok, the protesters have now been surrounded by the Thai military. As expected faced with such circumstances, the ‘red shirts’ have started to hit out and the army has not restrained itself from joining in the retaliation.

The BBC News website currently displays videos showing soldiers firing hundreds of live rounds, some into the crowds of anti-government protesters, in a bid to clear a big road junction, while the protesters reacted by hurling petrol bombs and driving buses they had commandeered at the lines of troops.

The armed forces chief has since vowed to restore order using "all possible means". These three words can only mean one thing for me: further violence.

Prime Minister Vejjajiva, through his rhetoric and actions this past week, has indicated very clearly that he has no intentions of stepping down and relinquishing his power. The ‘red shirts’ too have shown no signs of stepping down their protests.

In an interesting interview conducted by the BBC today, Thaksin Shinawatra said that while he never ‘instigated’ the attacks, he wants his supporters to fight for democracy and that he offers them ‘moral support’. To watch that interview click here.

Prime Minister Vejjajiva has since come out and explained that the protestors are allowed to exercise their constitutional rights and demonstrate peacefully but they are not allowed to resort to violence. Under the current state of emergency, gatherings of more than five people can be banned, media reports can be censored and the army can be deployed to help police maintain order. "We will try to find the best solution we can over the next couple of days," he added. Uh-oh.

In the current climate it appears impossible that a solution to end this conflict can be found quickly, peacefully, and more importantly that will be acceptable to both sides. But it is essential that a solution be found, and soon.

Tonight the British Foreign Office issued a statement advising British nationals against travelling to Thailand, a move that will surely be echoed by other embassies as this conflict continues. With Thailand’s economy so terribly dependant on tourists, this could not come at a worst time, especially as the tourist season approaches. Even if a resolution can be found soon, will the country regain the trust of travellers quick enough?

So far only two people have lost their lives, and the injured tally stands at 70 people, 23 of whom are soldiers. The longer this conflict continues, the greater these figures will rise.

Songkran is supposed to be a time of peace, a time of clensing and time of respect. You can hardly say that this is the case this year. Water has been replaced by blood, and water pistols have been replaced by guns and rifles.

So far, it’s not such a Happy Thai New Year. Sawasdee wan Songkran.