The poll conducted by Marketing Means sees support for the Lib Dems plummet 17% to just 18%, with the gains going to Labour (up 14% to 29%) and the Greens (who rise 5% to be on 6% of the vote) – the same percentage as UKIP. Way out ahead are the Conservatives on 38%, who drop just 4% in popularity despite recently announcing massive cuts nationwide in public spending. (NB: It should be noted that the sample of the poll is relatively small (492 identified voting intentions) and therefore should be treated with some caution. But, it does seem in line with national polls)
For a considerable time, and far longer than I’ve been able to vote, past elections in the South West, both national and local, have largely been a battle between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats since Labour have very little support in the region outside of the build-up urban centres of Bristol, Plymouth, Exeter and Swindon. In Cornwall, a true former Lib Dem heartland, headlines were made in the May 2010 general election as the county returned Conservative MPs for the first time in a decade.
Yet, if these figures were reflected in a general election soon, the Conservatives would stand to benefit almost as much as Labour, and the Liberal Democrats would lose some big name MPs. Reinterpreting these voting intentions into possible vote swings, Allthatsleft have speculated that Duncan Hames (Chippenham), Nick Harvey (Devon North), Stephen Gilbert (St Austell and Newquay), David Heath (Somerton & Frome), Tessa Munt (Wells), Adrian Sanders (Torbay) and even Jeremy Browne (Taunton Deane) could lose their seats to the Conservatives! (And this doesn’t even take into account the boundary changes that will no doubt be made to the further detriment of the Lib Dems and Labour around the country, and relies on the referendum vote on AV being rejected).
However, despite the glum forecast for the Liberals in the South West, one seat does looks safe and it is hardly surprising it is that of Yeovil - Paddy Ashdown's old seat and current home of David Laws MP – which should these results be realised would become the last Lib Dem heartland in the region. A sobering thought.
